The bookies can barely split Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev.
The Aussie fight legend’s coach Joe Lopez doesn’t quite see it the same way.
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As Volk prepares to defend his featherweight crown against the unbeaten Russian at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi, Lopez believes the match-up suits the Aussie champion – despite Evloev’s fearsome reputation.
“Defensive grappling more than anything,” Lopez told Fox Sports Australia of one of the major focuses in camp.
“But Volk is very good on the ground.
“It’s the ideal match-up for him, personally.”
And the early markets show just how close this one is, with some having the pair at virtually even money and others actually making Evloev the narrow favourite.
Lopez?
He doesn’t care.
“I don’t know much about that. I don’t bet. So I’m not interested,” he laughed.
“Every time I bet on someone, they lose. So I just stopped betting.
“Not that I was a betting man to start with.”
What Lopez is more interested in is the challenge Evloev presents inside the Octagon.
The 32-year-old Russian has a perfect 20-0 professional record and has won all 10 of his UFC appearances, most recently beating previously undefeated Brit Lerone Murphy in London.
And Evloev has plenty of admirers, with UFC star Jorge Masvidal previously declaring the Russian “scary” and a future featherweight champion.
But while Evloev has wrestled his way to a title shot, Lopez sees one big difference between him and some of the top grapplers Volk has faced before.
Particularly when it comes to what happens once the fight hits the deck.
“With Ortega, and those sorts of fighters, you’ve got the danger of the submission artist,” Lopez said.
“Movsar’s not a submission guy.
“He’s not, say, like an Islam Makhachev. Islam does a lot of submissions as well, where Movsar doesn’t.
“And he’s not like, say, a Khabib [Nurmagomedov] who gets on top of you and grounds and pounds you.
“He sort of grabs you and hangs on to you. You know, that’s what he does.
“So there’s no real threat apart from him hanging on.”
It’s a big statement given nobody has managed to beat Evloev yet, let alone stop him.
Could Volk become the first man to finish him?
“That’s the plan,” Lopez said.
And should the fight turn into the wrestling battle many expect, the coach believes one of Volk’s greatest weapons could become increasingly important.
His engine.
Lopez says there’s something unusual about the Windang Warrior’s ability to maintain – and even increase – his output as opponents begin to fade.
“The thing with Alex is that he has got a big gas tank,” Lopez said.
“And it’s funny. He gets better as the fight goes on.
“He might start slow, and the other guy starts faster than him.
“But that pace, he’ll just keep it up for the whole round, where the other guy will just die in a minute or die halfway through.
“He just keeps the same pace, and he just wears people out.
“Especially wrestling and grappling. It’s very tiring and it’s very heavy on the body, and that’s what’s always blown me out about it.
“When you’re supposed to be getting tired, he gets stronger.”
Lopez saw that engine put to the test during Volk’s two famous fights against Makhachev, including their epic first encounter in Perth.
And after watching Makhachev successfully defend his welterweight crown against Ian Machado Garry last weekend, Lopez couldn’t help but compare it with Volk’s own efforts against the Russian superstar.
“Garry didn’t capitalise,” Lopez said.
“He’s a big, strong guy, and he just sort of coasted and just, you know, didn’t want to win.”
Asked whether Volk had performed better against Makhachev, Lopez replied: “He did.”
“The thing with mixed martial arts, it is mixed,” he added.
“So you can be the best wrestler in the world and get beat up by a guy that has just got good defensive wrestling.
“We’ve seen that happen in the past.”
Of course, Volk is no longer the youngster who first began his journey towards becoming Australia’s greatest-ever MMA fighter.
He will be 38 when he walks into the Octagon in Abu Dhabi and Lopez readily admits his star pupil’s body needs to be managed a bit differently these days.
But what age may have taken away physically, Lopez believes years of experience have given back elsewhere.
“The body is not like when he was in his early 20s, so you can’t push it like it’s then,” Lopez said.
“But the knowledge and the skill, that’s different. It’s just the repetitions.
“Your body over time just knows to move the right way. It knows when you go here, I’ve got to be there.
“The only way you achieve that is by doing the reps.
“You’ve got to put the reps in, you know. And Alex has.”
Nor has everything Volk has already achieved diminished his appetite for the sport.
Asked whether the Aussie champ remains as hungry as ever inside the gym, Lopez was clear.
“Yeah, 100 per cent.”
As for how Volk continues finding that motivation after so many years at the top?
“I think you’ve just got to love the sport,” Lopez said.
“You know, I’m 63 and I’m still here [in the gym] every day.
“Most people are f***ing retired and walking on beaches. I could be, but I enjoy being here and doing it.”
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It’s a love of the sport that has already carried ‘The Great’ through one of the greatest careers in Australian combat sports.
And beating an undefeated fighter in Evloev would add yet another huge name to the list.
So where would another title defence sit among all those victories?
Lopez isn’t particularly interested in rankings.
“I guess that’s in the eye of the beholder,” Lopez said.
“One of my favourite fights is the Chad Mendes fight.
“You know, with all the world title fights, I just expected him to win them.”