‘Split open’: Biggest alarm bell in Bombers bloodbath; sad ‘reality’ Carlton can’t escape — AFL Talking Points

The first full round of footy is in the books, though the fact some teams have already played twice continues to frustrate fans and coaches alike.

From the messy fixture, to a worrying win and to years of pain continuing, the big issues from Round 1 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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PROBLEM WITH COACH’S OPENING ROUND ‘ADVANTAGE’ WHINGE

Hang on, Justin Longmuir, are you suggesting there might be something a bit unfair with the AFL fixture?

Surely not.

The Fremantle coach gave voice to a growing concern among the footy commentariat on Saturday following his side’s collapse in Geelong.

The Dockers led by almost six goals but the Cats eventually overran them, with Longmuir linking Geelong getting to play in Opening Round to their late-game fitness edge.

“I think anyone who has been around football would realise this is an advantage,” he said in his press conference.

“We should all start the season the same way. There should be no competitive advantage in teams having played a game before they play another team.

“It just makes so much sense to people in the industry. We’ve just got it wrong.”

The theory is certainly logical. Teams are often shaky with their skills in their first game of the season and then improve; combine that with their bodies being more accustomed to running out a full, competitive game (which you simply can’t practice, no matter how hard you try).

The problem is finding the actual evidence.

In Fremantle’s case, they probably should’ve won anyway given their six-goal lead. And it’s worth noting they had the exact same Round 1 fixture last year – vs Geelong at GMHBA – and lost by 78 points, when neither team had played in Opening Round.

On the surface, Round 1 games between Opening Round teams and Not Opening Round teams show a clear trend, but this is a clear case where stats can be abused – because almost all of those games were simply won by the favourite.

Round 1 games between Played In Opening Round and Didn’t Play In Opening Round

2024: Melbourne (played in OR) def Western Bulldogs (didn’t play in OR) – Melbourne favourite

2024: Fremantle (didn’t play in OR) def Brisbane (played in OR) – Brisbane favourite

2024: Gold Coast (played in OR) def Adelaide (didn’t play in OR) – Gold Coast favourite

2024: GWS (played in OR) def North Melbourne (didn’t play in OR) – GWS favourite

2025: Brisbane (didn’t play in OR) def Sydney (played in OR) – Brisbane favourite

2025: Hawthorn (played in OR) def Essendon (didn’t play in OR) – Hawthorn favourite

2025: GWS (played in OR) def Melbourne (didn’t play in OR) – GWS favourite

2025: Collingwood (played in OR) def Port Adelaide (didn’t play in OR) – Collingwood favourite

2026: Carlton (played in OR) def Richmond (didn’t play in OR) – Carlton favourite

2026: Gold Coast (played in OR) def West Coast (didn’t play in OR) – Gold Coast favourite

2026: Geelong (played in OR) def Fremantle (didn’t play in OR) – Geelong favourite

2026: Hawthorn (played in OR) def Essendon (didn’t play in OR) – Hawthorn favourite

2026: Adelaide (didn’t play in OR) def Collingwood (played in OR) – Collingwood favourite

2026: Melbourne (didn’t play in OR) def St Kilda (played in OR) – St Kilda favourite

Record for teams who played in Opening Round: 10-4

Record for the betting favourite: 11-3

To us, these numbers suggest the ‘Opening Round advantage’ theory is true to a minor degree, but we also think people are retrofitting a narrative to suit their case.

The simplest explanation? Bad teams usually don’t play in Opening Round, so for the most part, this is a situation where good teams are simply winning games they should.

Having said that, it’s unusual for favourites to be winning quite this often (especially in Round 1 which is more unpredictable than most); so if you wanted to argue that these good teams had an additional, minor advantage from being match-hardened, we could see that being true.

But that is still completely theoretical. Sure, in the case of Fremantle-Geelong, the Cats ran out the game better… but Carlton didn’t on Thursday night. They looked terrible and exhausted in the second half of their win over Richmond. (Admittedly, Carlton basically always looks like that.)

Meanwhile Melbourne had the running power all day against St Kilda, with 34-year-old Max Gawn easily outperforming his younger, theoretically more athletic opponent Tom De Koning in the fourth quarter.

In the end, we suspect it’s similar to teams coming off a mid-season bye playing teams who haven’t had theirs yet; there’s the advantage of rest, but the disadvantage of rust, and there’s no discernible trend in how it determines results.

We’re not disagreeing with the logic of ‘a team that played a game last week is more ready than a team that didn’t’, but there is no real proof it’s deciding matches.

Is it something the AFL should ideally try to avoid? Yes, just like they should ideally try to match up teams coming off a mid-season bye against each other.

But the league clearly has different priorities, like trying to create more appetising match-ups during the bye rounds. They do not promise nor try to create a perfectly balanced fixture focused entirely on competitive balance because they want to both run a sports league and maximise revenue; and those two goals are sometimes in conflict.

That’s not an excuse, but it’s the reality, in the same way that the mere existence of Opening Round draws plenty of complaints.

They’re gonna keep persisting with that too, because viewership and attendance continues to be high, and because it creates additional primetime games (taking away games from lesser timeslots) without actually adding another game to the fixture.

There’s nothing wrong with being critical, but understanding why something is or isn’t happening can only help.

– Max Laughton

‘REALITY’ BLUES CAN’T IGNORE… BUT WITH THE PERFECT FIGURE PULLING THE STRINGS

Carlton got back on the winner’s list after holding off a late Tigers charge.

But there’s a “reality” facing the Blues in what feels like something of a gap year.

Carlton effectively pushed a mini reset button in the off-season by trading Charlie Curnow for an assortment of picks and bringing in several recruits via trade and free agency.

Which, sure, added depth. But along with the departures of Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni, lowered their star factor and overall ceiling.

That transition was clear when the club unearthed seven new players against Sydney in Opening Round.

It puts the Blues in a unique, betwixt and between position — where they’re essentially building for the future yet trying to remain competitive as Michael Voss coaches for his fate.

The club is very well positioned from a draft capital perspective after the Curnow trade — it has four first-round picks over the next two drafts — its own and Sydney’s.

The two extra picks this year will come in particularly handy with father-son prospect Cody Walker a potential No. 1 pick. The tightening of the draft bidding system makes those extra selections all the more valuable.   

But Carlton fans who haven’t seen premiership success in over 30 years don’t care about draft picks or Walker right now. And they’ve already lived through multiple eras of so much promise — from Chris Judd’s arrival to the recent iteration that led Brisbane by five goals in a prelim.

“The reality here is Carlton basically knows this and it hasn’t admitted it – its list is still a mile off,” Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said on Fox Footy.

“It trades out Charlie Curnow and needs to bring in more run, more dash and some more forward options. It needs to bring in some more points for Cody Walker, which it has done.

“But it’s left it really dangerously thin in some parts, there’s certainly some players that will move on and not be part of the next premiership side.”

So how much more aggressive does Carlton get in turning over this list?

Do they cut even deeper and aggressively attack the draft and stockpile more picks to prioritise a young nucleus around the likes of Walker, Jagga Smith and Harry Dean?

“So are they toe in the water with this? We look at what Richmond did, you’ve got to few out the door to get a few picks in in a hurry and bank a glut of picks year in year,” Kangaroos great David King said.

“Do they need to explore (trading) another two or three at the end of this year that are high-commodity players?

“What about (to get) elite picks coming back, are you looking at Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps — the star factor players?”

One thing’s for sure. With new footy boss Chris Davies installed and chief executive Graham Wright pulling the strings from a bigger picture perspective, the club will be ruthless in its decision-making moving forward.

In the best interests of one entity and one entity only — Carlton.

“I think that’s the best thing about Chris Davies coming across from Port Adelaide, he doesn’t have any allegiances or loyalty to previous players,” Ralph continued. 

“Graham Wright is cold-hearted. He will look you in the face, slap you and trade you if that’s the best thing for Carlton. They’ve said Carlton first.

“If Carlton first is, let’s not talk about trading Patrick Cripps in Round 1. But if there are players out there that have collateral and they feel they value them less than another club, I think a lot of things will be open at the end of the year.

“We would love to see Michael Voss carry on, but they’ll make some pretty cold, ruthless decisions that will be for the betterment of the long-term future of Carlton.”

‘WORRYING FACTOR’: NEW YEAR, SAME PROBLEM IN BOMBERS BEATDOWN

The AFL sphere should take caution in judging Essendon harshly against a preliminary finalist in Hawthorn – but what we saw on Friday night wasn’t promising.

And an AFL Hall of Fame Legend believes there’s one factor in particular that should concern the Bombers’ faithful as the club looks to flip its fortunes this year.

Not only do Essendon’s defensive issues remain – and sank to near-worst levels – but it was hard to decipher what improvements were made to the way the side defends.

The Bombers had just about a full complement of back-half personnel available – sans Jordan Ridley – yet their 145 points conceded was their fifth-worst result under Brad Scott.

Further, their 93 points conceded from turnover alone was the seventh-worst result under Scott.

One more? The rate at which they allowed Hawthorn to transition the footy from defensive 50 to forward 50 – 41 per cent – was the fourth-worst outcome under Scott.

“I don’t know about expectation, but (the fans) come to the game today saying ‘OK, last year is what it was’ … and then you come up for your Round 1 game after six months of training, you put your best side out there … and then you get split open like this,” Garry Lyon said during Fox Footy’s post-match coverage on Friday.

“And some of these numbers – defensively, they’d been poor for a long time, and it just didn’t look like they had made any adjustments.”

Dunstall said it was “hard to tell what they worked on” in terms of stopping the opposition, in what was a low-pressure affair at the MCG.

“You’ve worked all preseason on things, you think ‘we’re better, we’ve improved, we’ve developed players …’, and then you get this harsh reality that you find ‘oh, is that a mulligan, or are we still showing the same signs that we had last year?’” he said.

“I didn’t see much that had changed from last year – that was the worrying factor, from an Essendon perspective, for me.

“The defensive frailties are still there, and it’s hard to tell exactly what it is that they worked on.

“I know they had to turn their list over so much with the injuries they had last year … it’s just hard – you want to see progress going forward, and you just don’t see any in Round 1, what’s the mindset?”

Former Geelong champion spearhead Tom Hawkins focused the conversation on Essendon’s lack of pressure – something any team, no matter skill level, can hang their hat on.

“I just would love to have seen their pressure rating higher,” Hawkins said.

“They had just about the side on paper that they would like to play with, yet their pressure rating was so poor.

“I think, as a side, when you don’t have the continuity of playing together each week, pressure is something that you can control.”

An interesting part of the discussion – tying into Hawkins’ comments – revolves around Hawthorn’s skipper’s comments with regard to uncontested marks.

The Hawks took 150 uncontested marks for the game, but skipper James Sicily remarkably said it wasn’t a focus for his side, rather just taking what the Bombers allowed them.

“Nah, not really, to be honest,” Sicily told a flummoxed Fox Footy panel post-game.

“That was just sort of what they gave us.

“I think with those sorts of games, when there’s high uncontested marks, there’s not a whole lot of pressure in the game.”

Hawthorn had 295 uncontested possessions on Friday. For context, last year’s league leader for uncontested possessions – the Bulldogs – averaged 236 per game.

As for marks, Brisbane averaged 104.4 last year to top the competition. The Hawks took 157 against the Dons.

Even if playing a lower-pressure game was the aim for Scott’s Bombers, they surely weren’t planning on letting the Hawks control proceedings to that astronomical extent.

‘GOT WHAT THEY DESERVED’: GIANTS ROASTED FOR BONT BLUNDER

He’s a three-time Leigh Matthews Trophy winner as the AFL Players’ Association MVP, but Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli was left without a tag in Saturday’s big win over the Giants.

GWS coach Adam Kingsley paid a hefty price.

By half time, the Bont had racked up 18 disposals and three goals as his side opened up a 38-point buffer.

And they were never challenged from there.

Two-time premiership Roo David King was shocked by the decision not to send someone to Bontemeplli.

“He’s got Brownlow votes in three of the last six times they’ve played against this mob (GWS),” King lamented.

“Adam Kingsley knows what’s coming, yet decided not to tag him!

“He didn’t have anyone near him.

“I think it’s the most disrespected this man (Bontempelli) has been in a decade.

“He’s a high-level player – when he’s up and going, he finishes games.

“They let him run around unopposed for the first 60 minutes of this football match and they got what they deserved.”

The Bulldogs skipper would finish with 33 disposals – 14 contested, more than 670m gained, 11 score involvements, six clearances, three tackles and 3.1.

It was a remarkable output given statistically, Bontempelli averages his third worst disposals against GWS in the 19 meetings he’s had with the Giants.

Speaking after the match, Kingsley defended his decision to let Bontempelli roam free.

“We didn’t start with one (a lock on Bont),” he said.

“We went to it at halftime. We put O’Halloran to him and gave him a greater responsibility.

“You know, if you consider the numbers Bontempelili for instance, 18 (disposals) and three goals at half time – he had 15 touches and no score in the second half. It’s a better result.

“It’s not completely shutting him out of the game – and I don’t think anyone ever will.

“Our numbers internally would suggest we get a better output without tagging a specific player through our midfield – that’s not always the case.”

And the Giants’ tagging tactics will no doubt be tested when they come up against the likes of Saint Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Magpie Nick Daicos in the coming weeks.

“I trust our midfield – we’ve got a lot of good players through there. We just didn’t play well,” Kingsley said.

“It’s one week.

“Unfortunately, it was almost like a carbon copy of last year in this moment at this ground against this opposition.”

Bontempelli’s dominance – one week after teammate Ed Richards played a starring role in the side’s win over Brisbane, led Fox Footy’s Jay Clark to question who is Batman and who is Robin in the duo’s pairing.

“Last week it was Ed Richards who went off against the Lions. Played a game we haven’t seen statistically since Garry Ablett Junior,” Clark said.

“(Against GWS) it looked like (Clayton) Oliver was more concerned by Richards and that frees up Bontempelli.

“That threat in that engine room is just so spread! What a beauty for Luke Beveridge.”