After an exhilarating African Cup of Nations group stage, we’ve reached the final rounds of fixtures, where 24 teams become 16 and we enter the business end of the AFCON.
Ahead of the last two days of the first round, we run through the outstanding groups and examine the permutations, looking at what each side needs to progress and potentially top their groups.
Group A and B have been settled as of Monday night, with South Africa joining Egypt, Morocco, and Mali in the round of 16.
Group C
Nigeria are already through as group winners, while Tunisia are still on course to finish in second place. Avoid defeat against Tanzania, and they’ll do just that, whereas even a defeat by the Taifa Stars would send them through as one of the best third-placed teams on three points.
For Uganda, only a win against a Nigeria side (which may be rotated) will be enough to progress. This could send them through in second place if Tunisia fall to Tanzania, although even in third place on four points, they’d be through.
Tanzania face a similarly straightforward scenario; beat Tunisia and they finish second (unless Uganda beat Nigeria and overhaul their goal different inferiority), while a draw or a defeat would not be enough.
If Tanzania draw 0-0 with Tunisia in Rabat, they will have an identical record with Angola, meaning a drawing of lots would be required to see who advances as the fourth-placed third-placed team.
A score draw between Tanzania and Tunisia would see the Taifa Stars leapfrog Angola in the pecking order by virtue of goals scored.
Group D
Botswana are already eliminated from the running here, but only one point separates Senegal, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Benin, with each set to progress.
Victory for Senegal over Benin will likely give them top spot — unless DRC beat Botswana by a significantly greater margin — while a draw would still mean they win the group if the Congolese fail to win.
If they fall to Benin, they would likely drop to third place, although four points would still see them through.
Currently second, the DRC are in a strong position given they must still face a Botswana team who have been perhaps the weakest at the tournament.
Given their head-to-head draw with Senegal, the Leopards know that if they rack up a high-scoring victory over the Zebras, first position in the group would be theirs, while a draw would see them through regardless of the other result.
An unlikely defeat by Botswana could condemn them to third, but even then, their four points already accrued would be enough.
Benin, who won their first ever AFCON match in their last fixture, will progress with a victory over Senegal, likely in second place, while they’re through in third with a draw.
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Sadio Mané: We deserved to win vs. DR Congo
Senegal forward Sadio Mané believes his side were unlucky not to claim all three points against DR Congo in group D of the Africa Cup of Nations.
Group E
Algeria are already qualified in top spot, having beaten both of their nearest group rivals, and their match against Equatorial Guinea on New Year’s Eve is the only fixture of the round that has no bearing on group standings.
However, Sudan and Burkina Faso find themselves in a winner-takes-all clash in Casablanca, where the victor will advance in second place and the loser progresses in third place.
A draw will see the Stallions advance in second place due to a superior goal difference, although Sudan’s four points may still be enough to progress in third place.
Group F
Finally to Group F, where Gabon are already eliminated, and both Ivory Coast and Cameroon sit pretty on four points, identical records and are equal on head to head.
Given this, if both teams achieve the same outcome (win or draw) in their matches — against Gabon and Mozambique respectively — goal difference will determine who tops the group and who comes second.
Whoever gets the better result will finish first and remain in Marrakesh, with the second-placed team heading to Rabat for a meeting with the Group B runner-up (South Africa).
If Mozambique avoid defeat against Cameroon, they could even top the group with victory — if the Ivory Coast fail to beat Gabon — while a draw sees them through as one of the best third-placed teams.