Alex de Minaur could be days away from cracking the top five of the ATP rankings for the first time, after advancing to the quarter-finals of the Shanghai Masters.
De Minaur, currently ranked No.7 in the world, beat Nuno Borges 7-5 6-2 in their fourth round clash on Wednesday afternoon.
It follows the Australian making the quarter-finals of all four slams over the last 18 months, along with the semi-finals of the Monte Carlo Masters and quarter-finals of the Canadian Open.
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De Minaur’s performance in China will earn him a hefty haul of ranking points, given the Shanghai Masters is one of the highest-level tournaments outside of the grand slams; and that haul could increase if he delivers on his ranking over the next few rounds.
The 26-year-old will face either unseeded American Learner Tien or out-of-form ex-slam champion Daniil Medvedev in the final eight.
He would then face a lower-ranked player in the semi-finals – potentially US Open conqueror Felix Auger-Aliassime or world No.8 Lorenzo Musetti.
A series of injury issues have caused chaos in the Shanghai draw with world No.2 Jannik Sinner retiring from his third-round match, and No.1 Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing before the tournament began, while No.3 Alex Zverev, No.4 Taylor Fritz and No.6 Ben Shelton all fell before the fourth round.
It leaves de Minaur and No.5 Novak Djokovic as the highest-ranked players left in the tournament.
With just one more Masters tournament left this year, in Paris, this is one of the last opportunities to add a big haul of ranking points before January’s Australian Open.
De Minaur, who sits on 3935 points on the live rankings after his fourth-round win, could move to 4735 points if he wins the tournament and claims the full 1000 on offer.
That would be enough to make him the world No.4, passing both Shelton and Fritz, as long as Djokovic does not make the final in Shanghai.
Djokovic will rise to No.4 if he makes the final, but de Minaur could then pass Fritz for No.5 if the Aussie beats the Serb in the decider.
As long as de Minaur makes at least the semi-finals in Shanghai, he will match his career-best and rise to No.6, passing Shelton.
De Minaur has never won a Masters-level event, only making one final, at the 2023 Canadian Open when he lost to Jannik Sinner – so even making the Shanghai final would be a major achievement.
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Entering the Australian Open ranked inside the top four would give de Minaur an enormous opportunity of making his first grand slam semi-final, as he would not be able to face any of the top three-ranked players until the semis at Melbourne Park.
De Minaur is only defending a handful of ranking points across the rest of the year – 200 for a quarter-final berth at the 2024 Paris Masters, and 200 for a semi-final spot at the 2024 Vienna Open.
That means if he reaches a career-high ranking this week, he has a good chance of holding onto that spot heading into 2026, potentially doing so by matching last year’s results.
At a minimum, he can consolidate his place in the top eight heading into the Australian Open, which would mean he can’t face a higher seed until that event’s quarter-finals.
LIVE ATP RANKINGS (midway through fourth round of Shanghai Masters)
1. Carlos Alcaraz (11340 points) – inactive
2. Jannik Sinner (10000) – inactive
3. Alex Zverev (5930) – inactive
4. Taylor Fritz (4645) – inactive
5. Novak Djokovic (4380) – currently in quarter-finals (maximum: 5180)
6. Ben Shelton (4100) – inactive
7. Alex de Minaur (3935) – currently in quarter-finals (maximum: 4735)
8. Lorenzo Musetti (3645) – currently in fourth round (maximum: 4545)
Maximum points requires winning the Shanghai Masters