There’s still 14 group stage matches to be played in the World Cup, yet the top four are essentially set in stone.
India, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia look poised to qualify for the semi-finals after each winning at least four of their opening six fixtures, creating a clear gap on the standings.
The hosts are the only undefeated team remaining in the tournament, looming as clear favourites to clinch a third World Cup title, while Pat Cummins’ Australia are in red-hot form with four straight wins.
Last week, the Australians became the first team in ODI history to score 350+ in three consecutive matches. David Warner is at the peak of his powers, while the team’s top-order has been bolstered by the return of opener Travis Head.
However, Australia’s semi-final berth isn’t a certainty just yet. Mathematically, nine teams still have a chance of progressing to the knockouts, including England, who are currently reeling at the bottom of the standings. After suffering a heavy loss to Pakistan on Tuesday evening, Bangladesh is the only nation whose World Cup dream is over.
Here’s what each of the other nine teams needs to qualify for the semi-finals.
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Buttler confounded by BIG spin | 00:36
INDIA
1st: 6-0, +1.405
Remaining Fixtures: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Netherlands
The hosts need just one victory from their remaining three matches to progress through to the knockouts – even three consecutive defeats is unlikely to be enough to see the hosts knocked out.
However, Rohit Sharma’s men could finish second on the standings if they lose their upcoming contest against South Africa at Eden Gardens.
Undefeated India heap pain on England | 02:01
SOUTH AFRICA
2nd: 5-1, +2.032
Remaining Fixtures: New Zealand, India, Afghanistan
The Proteas have enjoyed a near-perfect World Cup campaign thus far, apart from their shock loss to the Netherlands in Dharamshala.
Courtesy of their superb net run rate, South Africa realistically only needs to win one of their remaining three group stage matches to qualify for the semi-finals. However, South Africa has a couple of tough contests on the horizon, facing New Zealand in Pune and hosts India at Eden Gardens.
To avoid coming up against the mighty Indians in the semi-finals, it would be in South Africa’s best interests to win at least two of their remaining group stage matches to ensure they finish second or third on the standings.
Proteas pull off one-wicket thriller | 02:01
NEW ZEALAND
3rd: 4-2, +1.232
Remaining Fixtures: South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
The Black Caps need to win all three of their remaining group stage matches to ensure semi-final qualification, but even two should be enough. In such a scenario, they would just need to keep their net run rate above Afghanistan, which shouldn’t be a problem.
However, New Zealand will be determined not to finish fourth on the World Cup standings, so the Kiwis will be keeping a close eye on Australia’s performances over the coming couple of weeks.
O’Keeffe mocks Kiwis’ toss decision | 01:32
AUSTRALIA
4th: 4-2, +0,970
Remaining Fixtures: England, Afghanistan, Bangladesh
After a horror start to their World Cup campaign, the Australians are on track to comfortably finish in the top four.
Pat Cummins’ men just need to win two of their remaining three group stage matches to progress through to the semi-finals, as long as they keep their net run rate above Afghanistan. Even one victory could be enough pending other results.
However, to avoid facing India in the semi-finals, Australia should aim to win all of their remaining fixtures and pray that South Africa topples the Black Caps on Wednesday evening.
Aussies survive record Kiwi scare | 03:12
PAKISTAN
5th: 3-4, -0.024
Remaining Fixtures: New Zealand, England
After losing four consecutive matches during the group stage, Pakistan’s World Cup dream is basically over.
Even if Babar Azam’s men topple the Black Caps and England, which seems unlikely, they’ll be relying heavily on other results to crack into the top four. In such a scenario, Pakistan would need New Zealand and Afghanistan to lose all of their remaining matches to feature in the semi-finals.
Pakistan keep hope alive with big win | 01:08
AFGHANISTAN
6th: 3-3, -0.718
Remaining Fixtures: Netherlands, Australia, South Africa
Afghanistan has emerged as the unexpected dark horse to qualify for the semi-finals, but they’ll need a lot of things to go their way over the coming couple of weeks.
To progress through to the knockouts, the Afghans will need to win each of their last three group stage matches and rely on Australia losing to England in Ahmedabad on Saturday.
Spirited Afghanistan dismantle Sri Lanka | 01:03
SRI LANKA
7th: 2-4, -0.275
Remaining Fixtures: India, Bangladesh, New Zealand
It’s fair to say Sri Lanka’s World Cup dream is over.
Having already suffered four defeats, the qualifiers need the result of every match from here on to fall in their favour to finish in the top four.
The Sri Lankans have to win all three of their remaining group stage fixtures then pray that New Zealand or Australia lose a bunch of matches for any chance to qualify.
NETHERLANDS
8th: 2-4, -1.277
Remaining Fixtures: Afghanistan, England, India
The Dutch team’s focus has shifted from the semi-finals to Champions Trophy qualification, with the top eight teams of the World Cup set to feature in the 2025 tournament in Pakistan.
Finishing in the top eight would be a significant achievement for the associate nation, who upset South Africa earlier in the tournament to become everyone’s second favourite team.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for the Dutch, who can still mathematically qualify for the semi-finals if they win all three of their remaining group stage matches and either Australia or New Zealand lose three on the trot.
Netherlands pull off famous upset | 01:40
ENGLAND
10th: 1-6, -1.652
Remaining Fixtures: Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan
Believe it or not, despite suffering five defeats in the tournament thus far, England still has a slim chance of winning a second World Cup title later this month.
However, it can’t be emphasised enough how small those odds are.
England will need to win three matches in a row, including Saturday’s blockbuster contest against Australia, drastically improve its net run rate rate and pray that every other game over the coming couple of weeks falls in their favour.
As pointed out by Sky Sports, there is a scenario in which England and Sri Lanka both qualify for the semi-finals, but the odds of that happening are close to zero.
Root fumes after golden duck is upheld | 01:10
REMAINING FIXTURES
November 1: New Zealand vs South Africa @ MCA International Stadium
November 2: India vs Sri Lanka @ Wankhede Stadium
November 3: Netherlands vs Afghanistan @ BRSABVE Cricket Stadium
November 4: New Zealand vs Pakistan @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
November 4: England vs Australia @ Narendra Modi Stadium
November 5: India vs South Africa @ Eden Gardens
November 6: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka @ Arun Jaitley Stadium
November 7: Australia vs Afghanistan @ Wankhede Stadium
November 8: England vs Netherlands @ MCA International Stadium
November 9: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
November 10: South Africa vs Afghanistan @ Narendra Modi Stadium
November 11: Australia vs Bangladesh @ MCA International Stadium
November 11: England vs Pakistan @ Eden Gardens
November 12: India vs Netherlands @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
Finals
November 15: 1st place vs 4th place @ Wankhede Stadium
November 16: 2nd place vs 3rd place @ Eden Gardens
November 19: Winner of semi-final 1 vs winner of semi-final 2 @ Narendra Modi Stadium