With the bye rounds done and dusted, we can see September on the horizon. There’s just nine rounds left of the 2023 season – so who’s playing finals?

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does the Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round. It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality).

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): St Kilda vs Essendon at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (17.5 projected wins)

2. Port Adelaide (17.4)

3. Brisbane Lions (15.7)

4. Melbourne (14.85)

5. Western Bulldogs (13.15)

6. St Kilda (12.65)

7. Essendon (12.6)

8. Geelong (12.45)

9. Adelaide Crows (12.2)

10. Fremantle (11.5)

11. Richmond (11.4)

12. Gold Coast Suns (11.3)

13. Sydney Swans (10.15)

14. Carlton (10.1)

15. GWS Giants (9.6)

16. Hawthorn (7.5)

17. North Melbourne (4.65)

18. West Coast Eagles (2.25)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. COLLINGWOOD (12-2, 132.4%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 17: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Fremantle at the MCG

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Carlton at the MCG

Round 21: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at the MCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Essendon at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-hardest

The last two weeks have again shown the Magpies aren’t a clear premiership favourite, but they’re still in a tremendous position, and virtually locked into the top four. We rate their remaining fixture as slightly easier than Port Adelaide’s, plus their percentage is way better – and so while the pair’s looming Round 19 blockbuster will have the biggest impact on the minor premiership, the Magpies otherwise have the advantages. They look pretty secure in the top two; they’d probably need to lose to Brisbane to drop out, plus another couple of upsets.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.5 projected wins, finishing 1st

2. PORT ADELAIDE (12-2, 119.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Essendon at the MCG

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-hardest

The Power are playing finals, there’s no question there – they could probably lose every remaining game and still hold onto their spot. And with a four-game lead on fifth-placed St Kilda, they just need to win the simpler games on their fixture to lock up the double chance. While it would’ve helped if their old mates Adelaide had held off Collingwood, it was another example of why the Magpies aren’t some bulletproof ladder leader. So while the Pies still have the percentage advantage, they can certainly be passed – and the winner of Round 19’s looming blockbuster will be favoured for the minor premiership. Of course the Power know as well as anyone a minor premiership doesn’t mean much come September. They just want those two Adelaide Oval finals guaranteed, and if they win five or six of their last nine, they should have them.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.4 projected wins, finishing 2nd

3. BRISBANE LIONS (10-4, 121.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Richmond at the Gabba

Round 17: West Coast Eagles at the Gabba

Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 19: Geelong Cats at the Gabba

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-hardest

Friday night’s important win over the Saints opened up some space between the Lions and the top four chasers, but they’ve got some critical games left to prove they’re actual flag contenders – rather than just making up the numbers. To lock up the double chance, they get three Gabba games against three of the top contenders to take their spot; Geelong, Adelaide and St Kilda. Win all three and they’re making the top four. To make the top two, they’re going to need to beat a fellow contender in Melbourne – and they get the Demons and Magpies down south. It’s almost perfect; the teams they beat will perfectly reflect how good they actually are. Get to 15/16 wins by beating the teams they should, and they’ll have the double chance, but be third or fourth in the flag pecking order. Get to 17-plus wins, and the Lions should be in the top two – and would’ve shown they’re good enough to win the flag in the process.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.7 projected wins, finishing 3rd

4. MELBOURNE (9-5, 128.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: GWS Giants at TIO Traeger Park

Round 17: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the MCG

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-easiest

The Demons remain in the box seat for the top four despite their loss to the Cats, because of St Kilda and Essendon’s losses later on the weekend, and thanks to their strong percentage lead. But they’ve got a critical month-or-so coming up, with a bunch of tricky games where they’ll still be favoured, but they could certainly be upset if they’re not at their best. Beating the Saints, Lions and Crows in particular would sure up the Dees’ top four position, by hurting direct rivals for their position. The top two looks distant right now but with a pretty easy last month of the season, if the Dees can just get through this next patch with a few wins, they could fly home and take advantage of any stumbles above them.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.85 projected wins, finishing 4th

5. ST KILDA (8-6, 109.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 17: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

With three losses in their last four, and generally indifferent form since the start of May, it’s easy to say the Saints are going to be knocked out of the eight. And they still may be. But then you look at this fixture, and they should start banking wins soon. They play the bottom four over the next six weeks, plus Gold Coast away (which is a tricky game, but not winnable) – if Ross Lyon’s men win those five games they should play finals. But if they don’t win those five, then things get tricky. They played the Tigers close at the MCG, so you’d suggest the Saints would be slight favourites under the roof, but it’s still a very tight game… and then they’ll have Geelong (almost certainly still needing to win for finals position) and Brisbane away, the toughest trip in footy. Let’s put it this way – if the Saints are 12-8 after the Round 21 game against the Blues, they’re on the edge, but we’d lean them being OK… if they’re 11-9 or worse, they’re in trouble.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.65 projected wins, finishing 6th

6. ESSENDON (8-6, 107%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 17: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-easiest

We’re not particularly bullish on the Bombers as a genuine finals threat… but we’re bullish on them making it, because of their draw. That patch of games between Round 20 and 23 should decide their season, because they’re four very winnable contests. Just bank those, and you’re at 12 wins, and then they have five chances at finding the 13th – maybe over Adelaide or the Bulldogs at Marvel? Heck, with how flawed all of the teams from fifth on the ladder and below are, a couple of upsets could give Essendon a home elimination final. But first they need to focus on the task at hand, and win the games they should win.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.6 projected wins, finishing 7th

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-6, 102.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Fremantle at Marvel Stadum

Round 17: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-easiest

Despite an indifferent last month of form, the Bulldogs may have built just enough of a lead to play finals – even without crucial defender Liam Jones for most of the remainder of 2023. It’s in their control, at the very least, but there are wide bars between their best possible and worst possible results, thanks to a bunch of coin-flip games. We have the Dogs as slight favourites or 50-50 against the Dockers, Swans, Bombers, Giants, Tigers and Hawks for example; all winnable, all loseable. If they pull a Carlton, and go 0-6 through that critical patch of games, they’re done. But they could also secure their spot rather quickly and lock up a home elimination final (or maybe even sneak into fourth). If they’re on 11 wins by the time Round 22 rolls around, they should be able to bank 12 and 13 against the Hawks and Eagles, and at that point they’re safe… but you wouldn’t want to have your season on the line against Geelong in Geelong.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.15 projected wins, finishing 5th

8. ADELAIDE CROWS (7-7, 115.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

We’re comfortable calling the Crows one of the best eight teams. But some costly bad kicking, and two very tight losses to Collingwood, may delay the return to September which this side deserves. They have a couple of advantages – a kind fixture, because of last year’s bottom-six finish, and a strong percentage. That percentage should only be boosted in games against the Kangaroos and Eagles, plus they get the Giants and Suns in Adelaide. Really, combine those games with hosting Sydney, and you can very easily see Adelaide getting to 12 wins. Maybe with a strong percentage that could be enough. But otherwise they’re going to need to find a 13th win, against either Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide or Brisbane. We’d rank them in that order from most to least likely. Look – we’re projecting the Crows to get to 12 wins, and if they do they’re in a good spot because of their percentage, but we still have them ninth because we’re ordering teams by projected wins and not involving percentage. So while they may be less likely to reach 13+ wins, they certainly still can; and if they do, they should play finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 projected wins, finishing 9th

9. GEELONG (7-7, 114.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 17: North Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-hardest

We see it as a five-team race for the last four spots in the eight – and Geelong are both outside of the eight right now, and have the hardest fixture amongst that group. So why are we backing the Cats to play finals? Look at all those games at GMHBA Stadium, and look at the players they still need to get back from injury. Unlike last year where injuries rarely played a part, Chris Scott has barely had a full suite of selection options in 2023, and it has the Cats behind the eight-ball – but we still think they’re one of the best eight teams. Beat Sydney next week, and win at least four of their five GMHBA games, and the Cats will at least reach the 12-win minimum needed for finals contention. With their percentage, that could be enough, and the St Kilda game in Round 23 is certainly winnable if they need a 13th. On paper the Cats’ case for playing finals is clear – but their early-season issues have given them almost no margin for error.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.45 projected wins, finishing 8th

10. FREMANTLE (7-7, 97.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 19: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium

Round 20: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-hardest

The Dockers’ win on Saturday night over the Bombers keeps them in the hunt but we have a pretty sizeable gap between them and the other seven-win teams, Adelaide and Geelong, and thus between them and making the eight. The big loss to GWS really hurts, not just because it should’ve been a winnable game but because of the damage it did to their percentage. They’re not going to catch the Crows or Cats in that category unless something wild happens, so really they’re a win back of the five teams above them. Then there’s the fixture; their toughest opponents come west, meaning you can’t exactly guarantee them winning four or five more at Optus Stadium. So if the Dockers do drop home games, against sides like the Lions and Power, then they’d need to win away… and in three of their four remaining away games, we have them as underdogs. It’s just hard to see a path to 13 wins, and 12 wins with their percentage almost certainly won’t be enough.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.5 projected wins, finishing 10th

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-7, 100.7%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Collingwood at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 17: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: St Kilda at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 19: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Carlton at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

After a nervy start the Suns did enough to get past the Hawks, keeping themselves right in the finals race among the seven-win sides. But they haven’t exactly inspired a lot of confidence over their last couple of games and, with two losses likely coming against the top two on the ladder, they’re going to have to charge late to make the eight. If you squint you can see five wins on this fixture, but they’d need to pull a serious upset – while being genuinely consistent and beating the teams they should beat – to get to 13 wins and make up for their poor percentage. It all just seems very unlikely.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.3 projected wins, finishing 12th

12. RICHMOND (6-7-1, 102.4%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 17: Sydney Swans at the MCG

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest

Since Andrew McQualter took the interim reins, the Tigers have taken their chances while other sides didn’t, with a 3-1 record and the sole loss coming by just 10 points to Port Adelaide. The wins were pretty good too – two away, and one over the team in fifth. We feel this was just Richmond’s talent, which a lot of analysts (including us) saw in the pre-season, finally shining through. So is a shock finals run on the cards? Some help from a team above them collapsing would be handy but yes, it’s certainly possible. They should be aiming to win three of their next four, and combined with a likely win over the Kangaroos, that gets them to 10 and a half. They may only need two more from there – could it come down to Rounds 21 and 22, against the Bulldogs and Saints? Those games feel critical, not just to build the Tigers’ win total but to cut into the leads those teams currently hold. Remember, these projections are by nature conservative, because they’re based on probability – it’s hard to project a team to overcome a rival’s two-win headstart. But we do it like that because it’s an accurate reflection of how likely teams really are to win those games (rather than just saying yep they win this, no they lose this, etc). All of that is to say – it’s in Richmond’s hands.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.4 projected wins, finishing 11th

13. SYDNEY SWANS (6-8, 113.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Geelong at the SCG

Round 17: Richmond at the MCG

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 19: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at the SCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Melbourne at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-hardest

Well, percentage certainly isn’t a problem for the Swans any more, but they could’ve thumped West Coast by 1000 points and it wouldn’t have made their remaining fixture any easier. Needing to win at least six, if not seven of their last nine games, Sydney would need to pull a series of upsets to avoid missing the finals the year after making the Grand Final. Their last two games are particularly difficult, so they probably need to go 6-1 or 7-0 over their next seven to have a serious chance… they’re good enough to win those games when you look at them individually, but en masse? We suspect it’s just going to be a bit too hard.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.15 projected wins, finishing 13th

14. GWS GIANTS (6-8, 97%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Melbourne at TIO Traeger Park

Round 17: Hawthorn at Giants Stadium

Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at Manuka Oval

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Essendon at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-hardest

You look at the ladder and see the Giants are only a game out of eighth, and you think ‘well, they’ve been broadly competitive all year… could they make a run?’. But even in this season, where everyone keeps losing (meaning the bar for top eight entry is going to be lower), it’s hard to see it happening. The Giants will be heavy underdogs away to Melbourne, Adelaide and Port Adelaide, so they’d need to win the rest of their games to reach 12 – a tall order indeed, and one we think will be a bit too difficult. But at least we’ll know soon, because if they upset one of the Demons or Crows, they’ll still be in the hunt.

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.6 projected wins, finishing 15th

15. CARLTON (5-8-1, 98.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 17: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-easiest

Realistically the Blues’ finals chances ended late in their six-match losing streak across the middle of the season – even though they’re just two wins out of eighth. If you squint, and suggest absolutely everything could go right (which includes teams above them falling apart), maybe you could see a stunning late-season charge into the eight. After all, there are some winnable games on that fixture; but really, not enough. A few upsets would make their final season record look at least somewhat respectable, but on a binary pass-fail mark they’ve almost certainly failed already.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.1 projected wins, finishing 14th

16. HAWTHORN (4-10, 75.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Carlton at the MCG

Round 17: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Richmond at the MCG

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Fremantle at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-hardest

The Hawks are smack-bang in the territory of ‘frisky, and you’d rather not play them on the run home because they could ruin your year, but you should still beat them’. It wouldn’t shock us if they won their next three, and they could do massive damage to the seasons of Richmond, St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Fremantle, but they’re obviously not playing finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 7.5 projected wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-12, 69.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-easiest

A 12-game losing streak heading into the bye overstates how bad the Kangaroos have been, given they’ve been reasonably competitive since Brett Ratten took the interim job, but you’d suspect the streak will reach 14 before an intriguing three weeks. Could the Kangaroos even pinch two of three against the Hawks, Saints or Eagles? Either way a win over West Coast would effectively ensure North avoids the wooden spoon, which is a nice sign of growth.

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.65 projected wins, finishing 17th

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-13, 47.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: St Kilda at Optus Stadium

Round 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 18: Richmond at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: North Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-easiest

While the Eagles are mathematically alive in the finals race, there is absolutely no realistic possibility of them making it. They’re just trying to avoid becoming one of the worst teams in VFL-AFL history; their Grand Final is in Round 20, where they could afford to win and still get Pick 1.

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.25 projected wins, finishing 18th