Home Basketball The 14 ping-pong balls that’ll decide NBA titles — and the fate of a ‘once-in-a-millennium’ freak

The 14 ping-pong balls that’ll decide NBA titles — and the fate of a ‘once-in-a-millennium’ freak

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The 14 ping-pong balls that’ll decide NBA titles — and the fate of a ‘once-in-a-millennium’ freak

We’re sure in some dingy, dark room in a random big city, there’s been a higher-stakes game of bingo – with some less-than-legal stakes.

But this one’s pretty big too.

On Wednesday, NBA officials will pile into a small room just offstage at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center to determine the fate of the league, thanks to one ridiculous prospect.

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The winner of the No.1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery this year will earn the rights to select Victor Wenbanyama, the 226cm (in shoes) French freak who’s had scouts drooling for years.

MORE: What Wembanyama would look like at all 14 lottery teams

American basketballer Keith Hornsby, who has played against Wenbanyama in France in his pre-draft process, told The Guardian the absurdly skilled 19-year-old was “a once-in-a-millennium-type build and skillset”.

“You just don’t see guys like him come around. His ceiling is as high as he’s able to create.”

There are certainly other strong prospects in the draft pool, with the G League’s Scoot Henderson and controversial college star Brandon Miller – allegedly linked to a deadly shooting involving an ex-teammate – expected to be high-quality NBA players.

But teams like Detroit, Houston and San Antonio were tanking from day one of the 2022/23 NBA season – and really, even before then – in the hopes of landing Wenbanyama.

He is an instant game-changer who you can build a contender around, and for the Pistons, Rockets and Spurs – who share the highest odds of landing the No.1 pick at 14 per cent – could win them multiple championships.

But even play-in teams like Chicago, Oklahoma City, Toronto and New Orleans have a hope of landing the Frenchman – and combined, the odds of someone jumping from outside the top six to nab the No.1 pick are better than one-in-four.

Find out everything you need to know about the NBA Draft Lottery below.

Metropolitan 92's French power forward Victor Wembanyama (C) fights for the ball during the French Elite basketball match between Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 and Bourg-en-Bresse at The AccorHotels Arena in Paris on May 7, 2023. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP)
Metropolitan 92’s French power forward Victor Wembanyama (C) fights for the ball during the French Elite basketball match between Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 and Bourg-en-Bresse at The AccorHotels Arena in Paris on May 7, 2023. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP)Source: AFP

HOW DOES THE DRAFT LOTTERY WORK?

The NBA will place 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, into a machine. Four of these are drawn out to find a winning combination.

Teams are awarded combinations based on their lottery odds – for example, the teams with a 14.0 per cent chance of Pick 1 have 140 combinations which can be drawn, whereas the team with the lowest chance (New Orleans) has just five.

In total there are 1001 possible combinations with one not given out (so the combos can be divided equally between the teams).

The process of drawing four balls is repeated four times, to award the No.1, No.2, No.3 and No.4 picks, with the rest of the picks being given out in reverse order of team records.

The draft order will be revealed on ESPN’s broadcast which begins at 10am AEST on Wednesday May 17.

ODDS OF NO.1 PICK FOR EACH TEAM IN DRAFT LOTTERY

Team 1 (Detroit): 14.0 per cent

Team 2 (Houston): 14.0 per cent

Team 3 (San Antonio): 14.0 per cent

Team 4 (Charlotte): 12.5 per cent

Team 5 (Portland): 10.5 per cent

Team 6 (Orlando): 9.0 per cent

Team 7 (Indiana): 6.8 per cent (would be 7.5, lower due to tie-breaker procedures)

Team 8 (Washington): 6.7 per cent (would be 6.0, higher due to tie-breaker procedures)

Team 9 (Utah): 4.5 per cent

Team 10 (Dallas): 3.0 per cent*

Team 11 (Chicago): 1.8 per cent** (would be 2.0, lower due to tiebreker procedures)

Team 12 (Oklahoma City): 1.7 per cent (would be 1.5, higher due to tie-breaker procedures)

Team 13 (Toronto): 1.0 per cent

Team 14 (New Orleans): 0.5 per cent

* = Dallas’ pick will go to New York if it’s outside of top 10, which would require one of Teams 11-14 to jump ahead of Dallas

** = Chicago’s pick will go to Orlando if it’s outside the top 4, meaning the Bulls need to jump up the order to keep it

WINNING LOTTERY TEAMS SINCE 2010

(Year, team with first overall pick, player taken, winning odds)

2022: Orlando Magic — Paolo Banchero (14.00 per cent)

2021: Detroit Pistons — Cade Cunningham (14.00)

2020: Minnesota Timberwolves — Anthony Edwards (14.00)

2019: New Orleans Pelicans — Zion Williamson (6.00)

2018: Phoenix Suns — Deandre Ayton (25.00)

2017: Boston Celtics — Markelle Fultz (25.00)

2016: Philadelphia Sixers — Ben Simmons (25.00)

2015: Minnesota Timberwolves — Karl-Anthony Towns (25.00)

2014: Cleveland Cavaliers — Andrew Wiggins (1.70)

2013: Cleveland Cavaliers — Anthony Bennett (15.60)

2012: New Orleans Hornets —Anthony Davis (13.70)

2011: Cleveland Cavaliers — Kyrie Irving (2.80)

2010: Washington Wizards — John Wall (10.30)

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