The race for promotion to the bright lights of the Premier League began with 24 teams, but has now been whittled down to just four.
It can only mean one thing: the Championship play-offs are upon us.
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Luton Town, Middlesbrough, Coventry City and Sunderland will battle it out to join Burnley and Sheffield United as the new faces in the Premier League next season.
Interestingly enough, the four teams have all previously competed at the top level of English football at one stage since 1992 with Middlesbrough the most recent in 2017.
There’s heartwarming stories behind each team vying for promotion, perhaps none more so than Luton.
The Hatters were playing non-league football as recently as 2014 and have gone into administration a staggering three times in nine years.
What’s more, there’s the incredible journey of Luton midfielder Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu, who could become the first player to rise from non-league football to the Premier League with the same club.
But the play-offs don’t care for footballing romanticism.
They’re a nasty, cruel and stomach-churning set of games that culminates in the playoff final, a game dubbed the richest game in football given clubs can earn as much as $AUD495 million, per Deloitte.
Yet that’s why the play-offs are essential viewing.
Foxsports.com.au analyses the four teams gunning for promotion with some additional help from renowned statistical site FiveThirtyEight in what’s set to be another thrilling dash to the finish line at Wembley.
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LUTON TOWN
Ask the vast majority of football fans who they want to see in the Premier League next season from the four playoff contenders and they’ll say Luton Town.
Well, that’s not including supporters of their local rivals Watford or those backing Middlesbrough, Coventry City and Sunderland.
It has been a season of dreams for Hatters supporters and there may be more good times ahead.
Having made the playoff semi finals last year under Nathan Jones, there were high hopes about what this season would bring.
But the rug was pulled out from underneath Luton when the Premier League came calling for Jones.
The Welshman left his post at Kenilworth Road to link up with Southampton, leaving fans worried about the club’s future given what happened last time he left the club.
Spoiler alert: Luton was almost relegated before Jones came back to save the club in the nick of time in the 2019/2020 season.
However, those fears were allayed when Rob Edwards, who began the season as Watford manager but lasted just 10 league games at Vicarage Road, was appointed as Jones’ replacement during the World Cup break.
Watford’s loss was most certainly Luton’s gain, as the Hatters tasted defeat just three times in 25 games under Edwards en route to consolidating their playoff spot.
Key to Luton’s Premier League push is striker Carlton Morris.
A summer arrival from Barnsley, Morris impressed early on by scoring eight goals in 20 games under Jones in a reasonable return for a striker plucked from a League One team.
However, under Edwards, Morris became a lethal predator in the box.
The 27-year-old went on a tear and scored 12 goals, with nine of those coming in his final 15 appearances for the season and will enter the play-offs brimming with confidence.
With Luton unbeaten in their last 14 games, they no doubt are the raging hot favourites to be the last team standing in the play-offs.
FiveThirtyEight feel the same and have the Hatters at a 32 per cent chance of being promoted.
Perhaps Premier League away days at Kenilworth Road aren’t a far-fetched idea as previously thought?
MIDDLESBROUGH
Talk about the impact of a fresh voice in the dugout.
Former Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder began the season at the helm of Middlesbrough but was sacked just 11 games into the season with the club sitting in the relegation zone.
Although it took three weeks for Middlesbrough to appoint Wilder’s replacement, it was worth the wait.
Former Manchester United great Michael Carrick was handed the keys to the kingdom in what was his first full-time managerial gig.
He had the playing background to boot, but would his managerial skills hold up in a notoriously difficult league.
You bet.
Despite losing his first game in charge to Preston on October 29, Middlesbrough would go on to win a stunning 15 of their next 19 games.
Carrick implemented an eye-catching brand of football that took his troops to a new level, but none more so than striker Chuba Akpom.
A graduate of Arsenal’s academy, Akpom had never scored more than eight league goals in a single season throughout his career.
However, under Carrick’s tutelage, Akpom earned the Championship’s golden boot award after scoring 28 goals, seven more than Coventry’s Viktor Gyokeres who was second in the goalscoring charts.
There’s also the strong form of Socceroos star Riley McGree who has come to the fore for Boro.
The 24-year-old midfielder has six goals and three assists to his name this season and could become the only Australian in the Premier League should Boro get promoted and Harry Souttar’s Leicester City go the other way.
Given the remarkable turnaround overseen by Carrick, it was no surprise to hear Red Devils legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer proclaim he “cannot see him (Carrick) not being the Manchester United manager” in the future.
But to earn such a high-profile job, Carrick must prove he can guide Middlesbrough back to the Premier League for the first time in six years.
FiveThirtyEight certainly feel he is a strong chance of doing so, rating Middlesbrough’s promotion chances at 32 per cent.
However, a glance at the team’s recent run of form paints a slightly worrying picture.
Middlesbrough won just two of their final eight games which is not exactly the momentum they’d want to take in to the play-offs.
They have also failed to beat their playoff semi final opponents Coventry City this season, losing 1-0 away to the Sky Blues before holding them to a 1-1 draw at home on the final day.
Yet with a manager of Carrick’s stature and his experience in big games, Middlesbrough couldn’t ask for a better man to guide them through the play-offs.
COVENTRY CITY
It wasn’t very long ago Coventry City were essentially homeless and labelled by The Telegraph’s John Percy as “one of the most dysfunctional (clubs) in the country.”
From 2019 to 2021, the Sky Blues were forced to play their home games at St Andrew’s, the home turf of Birmingham City.
The groundshare came as a result of the detested former ownership Sisu’s inability to agree a deal with local rugby outfit Wasps who owned the Coventry Building Society Arena, formerly known as the Ricoh Arena.
Prior to that, Coventry City spent their 2013/14 League One campaign playing at Sixfields Stadium, the home ground of Northampton Town due to rent disputes with Arena Coventry Limited, who owned the Ricoh Arena at the time.
The homeless years, nor will this brief analysis, do any justice towards the hurt and frustration caused by Sisu in recent years.
It was a remarkable fall from grace for a club who had spent every season in the top flight of English football from 1967 until 2001 and won the FA Cup in 1987.
But now, under the expert tutelage of manager Mark Robins, the Sky Blues are bouncing once again.
Robins has led Coventry to finishes of 16th and 12th since they returned to the Championship in 2020 before guiding them to the play-offs this season in what is their highest finish in English football since 2001.
What makes Coventry’s playoff appearance even more special is the fact they were rock-bottom of the Championship for eight of their opening 11 fixtures and only climbed out of the relegation zone in late October.
Since then, Robins’ side lost just eight games from their next 30 and squeezed into the top six right at the very end.
In fact, Coventry has tasted defeat just once since January 28.
Talk about hitting your straps at the right time.
Pivotal to this surge up the table is that of striker Viktor Gyokeres.
The Swedish marksman bagged an impressive 17 goals from 45 games in the 21/22 Championship season but has bettered that figure in this campaign, scoring 21 in 46.
Gyokeres has since been heavily linked to a Premier League switch, with Wolverhampton Wanderers reportedly sniffing around.
As for the Sky Blues’ promotion chances, FiveThirtyEight has them at a 20 per cent chance of going up.
With Gyokeres likely on the move if Coventry can’t get promoted this season, it could be a case of now or never for Robins’ side.
But at the very least, a fanbase starved of joy in recent years can smile again.
SUNDERLAND
Against all odds, Sunderland are tantalisingly close to back-to-back promotions.
The Black Cats had been in the top six for all of 18 days from October 1 to the final regular season fixture and were without star striker Ross Stewart for 33 of a possible 46 games.
Add in former manager Alex Neil being poached by Stoke City less than two months into the season and it seemed Sunderland could have been nervously glancing downwards instead of optimistically gazing upwards.
But former Blackburn Rovers boss Tony Mowbray has come in and galvanised not just the youngest squad in the Championship but the entire fanbase in what has been a tremendous season.
The Athletic’s Philip Buckingham described Sunderland’s push for promotion as “mission impossible,” especially since the primary aim for the club this season was consolidation.
This is the same club that endured back-to-back relegations from the Premier League down to League One from 2017 to 2018.
Sunderland fans’ heartbreak was there for all to see in the Netflix documentary Sunderland ‘Til I Die.
Perhaps the most pertinent quote from any Black Cats supporter regarding the club’s plight came via a fan after the club lost the League One playoff final to Charlton Athletic in 2019.
“Why is it never us celebrating,” the fan said.
“Why is it never us?”
Well, as Buckingham wrote, the club have “crawled through a river of s***” and “are coming out clean on the other side.”
Led by energetic youngsters Jack Clarke and Amad Diallo, the latter on loan from Manchester United, there’s a lot to celebrate about this crop of players.
A significant amount of praise must be directed to Mowbray who, according to Buckingham, has “nurtured, cajoled and found the very best from a patched-up squad.”
Although Sunderland take on Luton Town, the highest-placed team among the playoff contenders, they will not be short on confidence.
Unbeaten in their last nine, Mowbray’s side are the most in-form of the playoff teams having picked up a possible 14 points from 18 in their last six games.
In their favour is the fact they’ve won four of their last five away games, proving they are a force to be reckoned with on the road.
Despite plenty of factors in their favour, FiveThirtyEight has rated Sunderland’s chances of promotion at just 15 per cent.
The lengthy injury list and inexperience could ultimately come back to bite but regardless of the result, it’s been a tremendously successful campaign for the Black Cats.
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF SEMI-FINAL SCHEDULE (ALL TIMES AEST)
First Leg
Sunderland vs Luton Town (Sunday 14th May, 2:30am)
Coventry City vs Middlesbrough (Sunday 14th May, 9pm)
Second Leg
Luton Town vs Sunderland (Wednesday 17th May, 5am)
Middlesbrough vs Coventry City (Thursday 18th May, 5am)
HOW TO WATCH THE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF SEMI FINALS
Australian football fans can watch the Championship playoff semi-finals LIVE on beIN Sports or Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >