The problem with procastination is that at some point, whatever you’ve been putting off will come due.

For Hawthorn, that’s the rebuild that has been on the cards for years – and is now in full swing.

There was nothing necessarily wrong with the strategy in the final seasons under Alastair Clarkson, which saw the back-to-back-to-back premiers trading out draft picks for ready-made players.

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In the Hawks’ case, when they were trading out first-round picks for players like Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara and Chad Wingard, they weren’t trading out super high selections anyway, because they were contending – so their natural picks were in the back half of the round.

And, yes, the Hawks had some success with late draft picks on valuable contributors like James Sicily (pick 56 in 2013), Blake Hardwick (pick 44 in 2015) and Mitch Lewis (pick 76 in 2016).

But the cost of those deals piled up. And after years of calls for the Hawks to trade out their veterans for high draft picks to replenish their stocks, they went hard in the 2022 trade period, losing the aforementioned Mitchell (to Collingwood) and O’Meara (to Fremantle), plus Jack Gunston (to Brisbane) and captain Ben McEvoy (to retirement), with a total of 1181 games of experience walking out the door.

You cannot replace all of that experience immediately. And, in the near future, that will cost them – on the scoreboard and on the ladder. But it’s short-term pain for long-term gain.

“Obviously a lot of experience has gone out on the side,” new Hawks captain James Sicily told Foxfooty.com.au.

“On face value, it’s quite easy to say we’re in for a tough year, but I feel like it’s put us ahead another year in terms of – you can use the word rebuild, I suppose – it sort of jumps us a year ahead.

“It’s hard to say that because a lot of those guys are good friends of mine. But that’s the direction the club’s heading in and I completely understand it.

“And I think it’s going to be a good decision purely based on getting a year ahead of the rebuild.”

The cost of the accelerated rebuild can be seen in the stark list profile the Hawks now have.

Just two players on their 2023 list have played more than 150 games – Luke Breust (260) and Chad Wingard (204).

In total just eight of the 43 players on Hawthorn’s list came into the AFL system before 2015, the year they last won a premiership, with almost half of the list (21 players) joining the club since 2019.

This information is not provided as a negative. If anything, it’s great that the Hawks have recognised they needed to get younger – and worse – before they would get better.

But there is a direct correlation between age and experience and success.

Of the last 20 premiers, the average age is 26.2 and average games experience is 126.7.

In 2023, the Hawks are the youngest (average age 22.8) and least experienced (average games 41.5) team in the AFL (per Champion Data).

“What it (the trade period clean-out) shows you is the extraordinary faith Hawthorn has in Sam Mitchell,” Jon Ralph said on Fox Footy’s Trading Day late last year.

“This might be three or five years of intense pain. The only thing he wants to do is win a fifth premiership – he doesn’t care about finishing seventh or eighth.

“It will be torturous. They will bring in young players and they will get there eventually, but it’s going to be a tough watch.”

The alternative to all of this was keeping players like Mitchell and O’Meara. Well, we’ve seen what that looks like. The Hawks of the last few years had their moments, but did not have enough talent to genuinely contend over the course of the season – it’s why they’ve finished in the bottom six for three straight years.

There is no prize for mediocrity. If anything, being mediocre just increases your chances of remaining mediocre – since it’s harder to rise back up if you don’t first dip down.

It is always darkest before the dawn. And at Waverley Park, it’s as dark as it can get.

STRENGTH

Scoring, maybe, once Mitch Lewis is fit. Most expected defence to be the Hawks’ trump card in 2022 under Sam Mitchell, given their experience in the back six compared to the front six.

Yet it was the opposite, with his team ranking a surprising 11th for points scored (above teams like Fremantle and St Kilda) and a downright impressive sixth for scores per inside 50.

Powered by 37 goals in 15 games from Mitch Lewis, who has turned from a draft night meme into a genuine star key forward, plus 72 from veterans Luke Breust and Jack Gunston.

Throw in 26 majors from arguably the AFL’s most underrated player Dylan Moore and you had a genuinely dangerous forward line at times, with the Hawks kicking over 100 points four times – more than they did it across the 2021 and 2019 seasons combined – plus 94 points against Richmond and 92 points in the win over eventual premiers Geelong.

But Gunston is gone, and after a training mishap Lewis’ knee injury will keep him out for at least the opening month of the season.

His return can’t come quick enough, as Hawks fans and coaches alike desperately look to see how he integrates with Jacob Koschitzke and new ruck-forward Lloyd Meek.

WEAKNESS

The midfield. Because that’s where they traded out their most valuable experience from; realistically the Hawks are going to struggle all over the ground.

But we have to spotlight the fact their top-two clearance getters, Jaeger O’Meara (107 last year) and Tom Mitchell (106), are both gone. It’s a generational change, with Jai Newcombe (85) already having cemented his spot under Sam Mitchell – but from there you’re looking at Conor Nash (62), Dylan Moore (43) and Harry Morrison (39).

Josh Ward played 14 games in his first season since being taken with Pick 7 in 2021, while 2022’s Pick 7 Cam McKenzie will get plenty of opportunities along with Pick 18 Josh Weddle – but we’re talking about teenagers here, and one of them is replacing a Brownlow medallist.

Ned Reeves and Lloyd Meek should split the ruck duties and both have promise – all of these players do. But there will be teething problems.

WHERE ARE THEY ON THE PREMIERSHIP CLOCK?

2am. We said earlier it’s always darkest before the dawn, but we’re talking about a slightly different metaphor here, because the Hawks are quite a ways away from contention.

They’ve got Sicily at one end and Lewis at the other; those are strong pillars to build from. And there’s certainly some young talent on the list, with six first-round picks across the 2019 to 2022 drafts at the club.

But this is a long-term project with a promising young coach at the helm. They need time, and they’ll get it.

PREDICTED LADDER RANGE

15th to 18th.

PREDICTED ROUND 1 TEAM

B: Blake Hardwick, James Sicily, James Blanck

HB: Changkuoth Jiath, Sam Frost, Will Day

C: Cameron Mackenzie, Josh Ward, Karl Amon

HF: Dylan Moore, Jacob Koschitzke, Connor Macdonald

F: Luke Breust, Lloyd Meek, Fergus Greene

FOLL: Ned Reeves, Jai Newcombe, Chad Wingard

I/C: James Worpel, Jarman Impey, Jack Scrimshaw, Finn Maginness, Josh Weddle